FIFA World Cup 2026 Group D betting guide: USA, Paraguay, Australia & Türkiye
Group D is the one the home crowd will be watching most closely. The United States, under Mauricio Pochettino, are the co-hosts and the market favourites — but Türkiye are right behind them in the odds, and Paraguay and Australia are not here to make up the numbers. This World Cup 2026 Group D betting guide — part of our full World Cup 2026 betting guide — covers every fixture, the winner odds, and where the money is worth putting for Singapore bettors.
Bet on Group D at sureWin →Group D at a glance
The 2026 World Cup runs with 48 teams across the US, Mexico, and Canada. Each group has four teams; the top two advance to the Round of 32. Group D is the most US-centric group in the draw — four of the six games are staged in American venues, and the United States play all three group games on home soil.
Group D full schedule (SGT)
| Date (SGT) | Match | Kick-off (SGT) | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 13 Jun 2026 | USA vs Paraguay | 09:00 | SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles |
| Sat 13 Jun 2026 | Australia vs Türkiye | 12:00 | BC Place, Vancouver |
| Sat 20 Jun 2026 | USA vs Australia | 03:00 | Lumen Field, Seattle |
| Sat 20 Jun 2026 | Türkiye vs Paraguay | 11:00 | Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara |
| Fri 26 Jun 2026 | Türkiye vs USA | 10:00 | SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles |
| Fri 26 Jun 2026 | Paraguay vs Australia | 10:00 | Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara |
The opening double-header on 13 June is one of the friendliest of the entire opening weekend for Singapore viewers: USA vs Paraguay at 09:00 SGT, then Australia vs Türkiye at 12:00 SGT. Both are manageable Saturday morning slots. The final matchday on 26 June has Türkiye vs USA and Paraguay vs Australia simultaneously at 10:00 SGT — set your live bets before then. sureWin's cash-out lets you manage positions across both games without staying up overnight.
Group D winner odds and qualification chances
| Team | Group winner odds (decimal) | Advance to R32 (%) |
|---|---|---|
| USA | 2.00 | ~82% |
| Türkiye | 3.25 | ~80% |
| Paraguay | 4.00 | ~66% |
| Australia | 11.00 | ~40% |
USA at 2.00 is the shortest co-host price in the draw outside of Mexico. Prediction markets have them only fractionally ahead of Türkiye, which tells you what sharper money thinks: this group could go either way at the top. The 80% advancement probability for Türkiye is almost identical to USA's 82% — they rate them as near-certainties to qualify, just probably in second place. Paraguay at 4.00 come in with enough quality to cause problems and a 66% advancement probability that supports a case for the expanded third-place route if they slip up.
Team by team
USA
Mauricio Pochettino took the USMNT job with one objective: end the group-stage exits that have defined American football's last two decades. His 26-man squad has an average age of 26 and has depth that previous US rosters did not. Christian Pulisic at AC Milan is the centrepiece — not just in terms of profile, but production. When he plays well, the US attack functions; when he doesn't, the limitations show. Tyler Adams anchors the midfield, Weston McKennie adds the box-to-box energy, and Ricardo Pepi at PSV brings a striker option that wasn't available four years ago.
At 2.00, USA to win the group is the obvious bet — but that's a thin return. The better structure is USA to qualify at a shorter price combined with first-goalscorer markets in the Paraguay opener at 09:00 SGT on 13 June. Pulisic's record in CONCACAF-adjacent games and his form at club level make him the most reliable individual pick in this group's opening match.
Türkiye
Vincenzo Montella's Türkiye qualified dramatically — Kerem Aktürkoğlu scored the winning penalty against whichever European side they faced in the playoffs, and the squad arrived knowing they'd been tested and survived. The two players the rest of this group will be most concerned about are both 20 years old. Arda Güler at Real Madrid produced 14 assists and 6 goals across La Liga and the Champions League in 2025-26. Kenan Yıldız at Juventus is developing at a similar pace. Hakan Çalhanوğlu captains the midfield and is one of the better deep-lying playmakers in club football right now.
Türkiye at 3.25 to win the group is a reasonable alternative to backing USA at 2.00. The more targeted play is Türkiye to qualify at a shorter price, plus Güler first goalscorer in the Australia opener at 12:00 SGT on 13 June. Güler has the habit of scoring in big games.
Paraguay
Paraguay finished sixth in CONMEBOL qualifying with 28 points — level with Brazil on points at that stage, which gives you a sense of how reliable their results were across the cycle. Gustavo Alfaro runs a disciplined, physically committed side built around Gustavo Gomez at the back (86 caps, probably the most experienced player in this group). Miguel Almiron provides the creative energy in midfield, drifting in from wide and connecting with Antonio Sanabria up front. Julio Enciso, now at Strasbourg, brings technical quality and the kind of unpredictability that can unlock teams on bad days.
Paraguay's most interesting market is the USA vs Paraguay opener at 09:00 SGT on 13 June. USA are the favourites, but this is the game where Paraguay are most likely to spring a surprise — the first game, before tournament pressure fully sets in, against a team that historically underperforms in opening group matches. Paraguay +1 Asian handicap or both teams to score are worth examining at whatever price sureWin has available.
Australia
Tony Popovic took over from Graham Arnold and has stabilised a squad that has been through transitional periods. Mathew Ryan — now on his fourth World Cup — is the goalkeeper. The back three of Harry Souttar, Alessandro Circati, and Cameron Burgess blends experience and physicality. Jackson Irvine at St Pauli is the vice-captain and one of the more reliable performers at this level. In attack, Martin Boyle provides the direct running and Mitchell Duke the target-man option that gave Australia their goal against France in 2022.
Australia at 11.00 to win the group reflects the market's honest assessment. The more defensible bet is Australia's third-place route: in the expanded 48-team format, eight third-place finishers advance. They need to beat one of USA, Türkiye, or Paraguay — or stay tight on goal difference across the group. The Paraguay vs Australia game on 26 June at 10:00 SGT is the one to have live positions on if that race is still open.
Group D predictions
USA win the group. Home advantage at SoFi Stadium with Pulisic fit is a hard combination to beat, and Pochettino's system is built for the kind of organised, high-energy games this group stage will produce. The more interesting question is who takes second. Türkiye's attacking quality — specifically what Güler and Yıldız can do in the final third — makes them the most likely to push USA for top spot rather than settle for second.
Second place goes to Türkiye. Their qualification experience, combined with two of the most dangerous young attacking players in this tournament, makes them better equipped than Paraguay or Australia for the pressure moments. The final matchday on 26 June — Türkiye vs USA and Paraguay vs Australia simultaneously at 10:00 SGT — is the one to have sureWin's live markets open for.
Our selections: USA to win Group D (2.00) | Türkiye to advance to the Round of 32 | Value pick: Türkiye to win Group D at 3.25.
Bet on Group D at sureWin →Frequently asked questions
Which team is favourite to win Group D at the 2026 World Cup?
USA at 2.00 (decimal) under Mauricio Pochettino. They play all three group games on home soil, Christian Pulisic is in form at club level, and they have a squad depth that previous USMNT World Cup sides have lacked. That said, Türkiye at 3.25 are not far behind — this is a competitive group at the top.
What time do Group D matches kick off in Singapore (SGT)?
Both Matchday 1 games on 13 June kick off at 09:00 SGT (USA vs Paraguay) and 12:00 SGT (Australia vs Türkiye) — two of the most Singapore-friendly times of the opening weekend. On 20 June, games are at 03:00 and 11:00 SGT. The final matchday on 26 June has both games simultaneously at 10:00 SGT.
Can Australia qualify from Group D at the 2026 World Cup?
It's a stretch, but not impossible. In the expanded 48-team format, eight of the twelve third-place finishers advance. Australia need to stay competitive in every game, build positive goal difference, and hope Paraguay and Türkiye take points off each other. The 26 June game against Paraguay is the one that will effectively decide their fate.
How does sureWin compare to Singapore Pools for World Cup betting?
Singapore Pools mostly covers match result and total goals. sureWin has group winner markets, both teams to score, Asian handicap, correct score, first goalscorer, and live in-play with cash-out. For Group D — Pulisic or Güler first goalscorer, Paraguay Asian handicap, Australia BTTS — the range at sureWin is considerably broader.
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