The favourites for World Cup 2026 look expensive. France and Spain sit at 6.00, England at 7.50, and Brazil, Germany and Argentina all clustered around 9.00. At those prices you need the tournament to go almost perfectly to turn a profit. For Singapore bettors who want real value, the more interesting question is which teams the market is sleeping on — and why.
I’ve watched a lot of football over the past eight years, and the pattern at every major tournament is the same: one or two teams from outside the top tier cause serious damage. At Russia 2018 it was Croatia. At Qatar 2022 it was Morocco. At a 48-team World Cup with three group games and then straight knockout football, the path to the final is shorter in matches but not necessarily easier. That creates opportunity.
Below are the five teams I think offer genuine outright value at current prices, plus the specific reasoning behind each pick.
Morocco (Group C)
Morocco reached the semi-finals in Qatar — the first African nation to do so — and they haven’t lost much since. Walid Regragui is still the coach. Achraf Hakimi is still operating at the highest level. And Sofyan Amrabat, who was arguably the best defensive midfielder at Qatar 2022, has another four years of experience behind him.
What Morocco do structurally is hard to play against. They sit in a low block, absorb pressure, and hit fast. In qualifying for WC2026 they won the CAF section with eight wins and two draws in ten games, conceding just four goals. Group C puts them with Brazil, Haiti and Scotland — a tough group, but Morocco have already beaten better sides than those in knockout football.
The market has them around 30.00 to 40.00 to win the tournament. My assessment is closer to 12 to 15. They are not a fluke at this level any more, and the price still hasn’t adjusted to account for the core of this squad being four years more experienced than they were in Qatar.
Player to watch: Brahim Diaz. He had a superb season for Real Madrid and gives Morocco a different dimension in attack — someone who can unlock a low block rather than just waiting for a counter.
Back Morocco to win the World Cup at sureWin →
Japan (Group F)
Japan are the team I keep coming back to. They beat Germany and Spain in Qatar 2022 from a group stage position that looked impossible. Their current squad is not just the one that did that — it is better. A significant number of starters now play regularly in the Bundesliga, Serie A and the Premier League, which was not the case four years ago.
Hajime Moriyasu has settled on a system built around pressing intensity, quick transitions, and a deep block that frustrates more technical opponents. It is not exciting football but it wins games. Japan are ranked 15th in the current FIFA rankings — higher than Belgium, who are in Group G — and the market completely ignores this.
Group F gives them Netherlands, Sweden and Tunisia. They can finish second in that group, which keeps them in the draw. After that it is knockout football, and Japan have already shown they can beat anyone in knockout football.
Current odds around 40.00 to 50.00 to win the tournament look wrong to me. A realistic price is somewhere between 18.00 and 22.00.
Player to watch: Ao Tanaka. The Dortmund midfielder is the engine of this side. When Japan are good, he is usually having a quiet game — which is exactly what you want from a defensive midfielder.
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Türkiye (Group D)
Türkiye finished third in Euro 2024 — a tournament they were not expected to get past the group stage in — and they did it with a squad that was largely the same one that underperformed at Euro 2020. The difference was Vincenzo Montella, the Italian coach who straightened out their defensive structure and got Hakan Calhanoglu playing in his best position.
Calhanoglu is now one of the best deep-lying midfielders in Europe. Inter Milan built their Serie A title around him last season. At international level he has the quality to control games against most opponents.
Group D puts Türkiye with the USA, Australia and Paraguay. That is a group they should qualify from, probably as runners-up. From there they have the defensive organisation to beat a higher-ranked side in the round of 32.
At 50.00 to 60.00 for the tournament, they represent better value than their price suggests. I wouldn’t put them as a serious contender, but at those odds you don’t need them to win it — you need them to get deep into the knockout stage, which I think is a realistic outcome.
Player to watch: Arda Guler. He broke through at Real Madrid at 19 and at WC2026 he will be 21 — old enough to handle the pressure, young enough to still be surprising people. He is the kind of player who can change a tournament.
Back Türkiye to win the World Cup at sureWin →
Uruguay (Group H)
Uruguay will not win the World Cup. I want to be honest about that. But at 80.00 to 100.00 they are a legitimate quarter-final team, and outright bets at those prices only need partial success to generate decent returns if you structure your stake correctly.
What Uruguay have is a manager in Marcelo Bielsa who maximises every squad he touches, a defensive record in CONMEBOL qualifying that was the second best in South America, and forwards in Darwin Nunez and Facundo Torres who can beat any individual defender on the planet on a good day.
Group H puts them with Spain, Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde. Spain will likely win the group, but second place is Uruguay’s to lose. In the knockout rounds they are physical, disciplined and dangerous from set pieces — exactly the kind of team that eliminates a fancied opponent who has a bad day.
Player to watch: Darwin Nunez. Inconsistent at Liverpool but often brilliant for Uruguay. He seems to raise his level in a national shirt, which is not always the case for club forwards.
Back Uruguay to win the World Cup at sureWin →
Belgium (Group G)
This might be the most contrarian pick on the list. Belgium’s golden generation is gone — Hazard is retired, De Bruyne is 34 by the time the tournament starts, and Lukaku has looked like a player in decline for two years. The market has priced them accordingly, somewhere around 50.00 to 70.00.
But here is what the price doesn’t account for: Domenico Tedesco has quietly rebuilt this squad around a younger core. Lois Openda at RB Leipzig was one of the best strikers in the Bundesliga last season. Charles De Ketelaere at Atalanta has developed into a consistent performer at the highest level. Belgium’s FIFA ranking of 3rd is misleading in one direction, but their actual squad depth is being underestimated in the other.
Group G with Egypt, Iran and New Zealand is one of the softer groups in the tournament. Belgium should win it comfortably, which gives them momentum and match sharpness going into the knockout rounds. That matters more than it gets credit for.
If De Bruyne has one last tournament in him — and he might — Belgium can still cause problems at 50.00-plus.
Player to watch: Lois Openda. Pace, movement, goals. He finished last Bundesliga season with 24 league goals and looks ready for a major tournament.
Back Belgium to win the World Cup at sureWin →
The outright value case
The five teams above are priced collectively at somewhere between 30.00 and 100.00. The favourites — France, Spain, England — account for roughly 45% of the market’s implied probability between them. That leaves more than half the tournament’s probability distributed among 43 other teams, and the market doesn’t price all of them accurately.
At a 48-team tournament, even a team ranked in the top 20 faces enormous variance over seven matches. Morocco took out Spain and Portugal in Qatar. Japan beat Germany and Spain. These are not coincidences — they are what happens when a well-organised side plays to their ceiling for one month.
For Singapore bettors, the approach I’d suggest is splitting your outright stake across two or three of these teams rather than betting one at shorter odds. You want multiple live interests as the tournament progresses.
Value picks summary
| Team | Group | Market odds (approx.) | Ryan’s fair value | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morocco | C | 30.00–40.00 | 12.00–15.00 | Strong value |
| Japan | F | 40.00–50.00 | 18.00–22.00 | Strong value |
| Türkiye | D | 50.00–60.00 | 28.00–35.00 | Good value |
| Uruguay | H | 80.00–100.00 | 40.00–50.00 | Speculative value |
| Belgium | G | 50.00–70.00 | 30.00–40.00 | Good value |
Frequently asked questions
What does “dark horse” mean in World Cup betting?
A dark horse is a team with a realistic but underestimated chance of winning the tournament. The term comes from horse racing and refers to an entrant whose form is unknown or underappreciated by the market. In betting terms, a dark horse typically has outright odds above 20.00 but has genuine structural reasons to outperform that price — a strong manager, organised defence, specific match-up advantages in the draw, or a squad that has improved faster than the market has updated.
Is sureWin licensed to accept bets from Singapore?
sureWin operates under Anjouan Internet Gaming Licence No. ALSI-202511046-FI2. Singapore residents should satisfy themselves that using offshore betting platforms complies with their own circumstances under local regulations.
Should I bet one dark horse or spread across several?
For outright bets at long odds, spreading across two or three teams reduces the variance significantly. If you back Morocco at 35.00, Japan at 45.00, and Türkiye at 55.00 in equal stakes, any one of them reaching the final likely returns a profit even accounting for the other two losing. The goal with outright value betting is not to find one perfect pick — it is to find multiple mispriced selections and get exposure to all of them.
When is the best time to place World Cup outright bets?
Generally, the best outright prices are available before the tournament starts, when bookmakers are pricing off squad news, qualifying form and rankings rather than live form. Once the group stage begins and a dark horse wins their first game, odds shorten fast. For teams like Japan and Morocco, who have historically started tournaments strongly, waiting for confirmation of form usually means missing the best price. The value is in backing the structural case before the market sees it play out.
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